A newly published research paper is raising significant concerns about the technical limitations of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service, particularly in the context of the $42.5 billion U.S. Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program. Although the service is often presented as a solution for underserved and rural areas, new data suggest that Starlink may reach its saturation point much earlier than previously assumed.

The report was conducted by telecommunications researcher Sascha Meinrath, Director of X-Lab and Palmer Chair at Penn State University, together with colleagues Karl Grindal, Glenn Fishbine, and Nancy DeGidio. The findings were first reported by The Washington Post and are now publicly available online. As G Business writes, citing The Washington Post, the analysis is based on publicly accessible information through June 2025. Since Starlink does not publish detailed technical specifications, the authors explicitly state that their assumptions are conditional.

According to the study, within a single Starlink satellite beam area—estimated at 62.9 square miles—capacity degradation begins once approximately 419 users (or 6.7 users per square mile) are actively using the service. At that density, it becomes difficult for all users to maintain the federally defined broadband speed of 100 Mbps download and 20 Mbps upload. If more than 19 terminals per square mile are connected, the system can no longer reliably deliver 100/20 Mbps performance.

These limitations have immediate implications for how U.S. states should evaluate Starlink in broadband grant scoring processes. Under recent changes by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), states are required to apply a technology-neutral approach to broadband infrastructure funding. This mandates that low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite providers such as Starlink be considered alongside fiber-optic networks—despite their fundamentally different capacities.

According to the X-Lab study:

"Across many geographic areas Starlink may not be a qualified bidder as it may be unable to attain the required 100/20 Mbps service level and, in deploying Starlink services, may actually degrade pre-existing users’ services to the point that they no longer receive minimal broadband speeds."

The authors emphasize that even in low-population areas, network congestion becomes a real risk when more than six households per square mile use Starlink. In such cases, they recommend that funding allocations should only be made after rigorous due diligence and independent verification of Starlink's capability to meet federal performance thresholds.

The report also criticizes the lack of transparency from SpaceX, noting that the company does not disclose detailed engineering data, satellite coverage metrics, or real-time load statistics. As a result, public agencies and regulators face challenges in evaluating Starlink’s true capabilities.

Historically, performance concerns have been echoed by previous studies. In 2021, the Fiber Broadband Associationand Cartesian found that LEO satellite internet was suitable only for “remote, low-density areas” and warned of severe capacity constraints. More recently, Ookla reported that only 17.4% of Starlink users in the U.S. consistently achieved the FCC’s minimum broadband definition of 100/20 Mbps, further suggesting uneven service quality across regions.

Another key point in the X-Lab report is the potential negative impact of additional subscribers on existing Starlink users. As more terminals are activated within a beam footprint, the overall quality of service may decline, potentially pushing existing users below minimum broadband thresholds. This could lead to violations of funding eligibility requirements and expose agencies to audits or refund demands.

Despite this, Starlink remains an attractive option for rapid deployment in hard-to-reach areas, and some states have already included it in their broadband expansion plans. However, the X-Lab report calls for engineered capacity modeling and geographic-specific performance assessments before awarding subsidies.

The report concludes:

"A failure to take into account fundamental real-world limits to Starlink capacity will result in the allocation of Federal funding to support connectivity that may not meet eligibility requirements, thus raising serious concerns over waste, fraud, and abuse."

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